Groupon is entering a new era.
CNNMoney is reporting that CEO Andrew Mason is out at the company that he founded.
I wrote in November that it was likely that Mason was going to get fired. He survived that quarterly earnings period, but couldn't survive the most recent results.
It's not much of a surprise because of two things. First, they should have taken Google's offer to buyout for some $6 billion. Upon passing on that, they needed to diversify and earn revenue from that diversification fast.
Groupon started to diversify, including such things as a new credit card processing service (a highly watered down market as it is), but it was basically too little, too late.
So where does the company go from here? They will name an interim CEO, but from there the company has a few options.
They are now a major target for a takeover at a huge discount to what Google offered. They may also keep trying to further diversify their offerings and basically 'restart' the company. Third, they may end up going private.
It's a bit too early to say which way the company will go, but we will likely know by the end of the year.
Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Google. Show all posts
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Oh Groupon!
It is being reported by Yahoo! that Groupon CEO Andrew Mason is about to get canned by his own company.
Getting fired sucks. I can't imagine what it would be like to be fired by a company that I founded. If the reports end up being true, it certainly wouldn't be the first time this happened, and it certainly won't be the last time it happens.
However, if it hasn't been made clear by anyone who has a clue about the 'daily deals' industry, their time is over - at least how the industry is currently structured.
Do a quick Google search on the experience that companies have had when they utilize these deals. Sure, it may be great for a particular business or a one time, small deal but most businesses have had a negative experience.
Even when I had my own business, there was a short time where I was hounded on a daily basis by Groupon, LivingSocial and the others, to sign up and have a deal. However, I had done my homework and there was zero upside and it would have been nothing but a money loser for me. I think most businesses have experienced that and I was smart enough to apply those lessons to my business.
Speaking of LivingSocial, when was the last time you saw a commercial for them? It used to be every commercial break (sometimes more than once a break) on nearly every channel. I think now, it has been six months or more since I last saw their commercials aired.
That being said, I see only two ways forward with this particular industry. First, if there is going to be a national model, there can only be one or two companies - and they can't take 50 percent of the revenue from the merchant right off the top (after the discount is applied). They must take a smaller cut from the merchants to even have a chance of getting some of those companies back.
Otherwise, it's going to just be some local model that is run by a local business. I've primarily seen local newspapers and TV stations getting in on this business. They likely do this because they are able to take a smaller cut of the revenue from the merchant because it includes something along the lines of advertising - so it's more of a win/win for the media company and the merchant.
I'm sure the 'daily deals' industry isn't going anywhere, but unless the firms such as Groupon and LivingSocial change, folks like Mr. Mason are not going to find themselves in the industry much longer.
Getting fired sucks. I can't imagine what it would be like to be fired by a company that I founded. If the reports end up being true, it certainly wouldn't be the first time this happened, and it certainly won't be the last time it happens.
However, if it hasn't been made clear by anyone who has a clue about the 'daily deals' industry, their time is over - at least how the industry is currently structured.
Do a quick Google search on the experience that companies have had when they utilize these deals. Sure, it may be great for a particular business or a one time, small deal but most businesses have had a negative experience.
Even when I had my own business, there was a short time where I was hounded on a daily basis by Groupon, LivingSocial and the others, to sign up and have a deal. However, I had done my homework and there was zero upside and it would have been nothing but a money loser for me. I think most businesses have experienced that and I was smart enough to apply those lessons to my business.
Speaking of LivingSocial, when was the last time you saw a commercial for them? It used to be every commercial break (sometimes more than once a break) on nearly every channel. I think now, it has been six months or more since I last saw their commercials aired.
That being said, I see only two ways forward with this particular industry. First, if there is going to be a national model, there can only be one or two companies - and they can't take 50 percent of the revenue from the merchant right off the top (after the discount is applied). They must take a smaller cut from the merchants to even have a chance of getting some of those companies back.
Otherwise, it's going to just be some local model that is run by a local business. I've primarily seen local newspapers and TV stations getting in on this business. They likely do this because they are able to take a smaller cut of the revenue from the merchant because it includes something along the lines of advertising - so it's more of a win/win for the media company and the merchant.
I'm sure the 'daily deals' industry isn't going anywhere, but unless the firms such as Groupon and LivingSocial change, folks like Mr. Mason are not going to find themselves in the industry much longer.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Why you should not buy Facebook stock...yet.
Facebook officially goes public tomorrow, with an initial price of $38 per share. That price has largely been set due to initial demand and absolutely nothing to do with any form of rational thinking.
Yes, there are going to be some very wealthy people tomorrow both on paper and in their pockets. Those that are wealthy on paper are those that have a lot of Facebook shares and those that have their pockets overflowing with money are those that sell some or all of their shares tomorrow.
Here is the problem. Facebook pulled in only about $1 billion in revenue last year. That is no number to sneeze at, but with their IPO price of $38 per share, that values the company at about $104 billion dollars. Is their P/E ratio really worth being at 104?
Google's P/E ratio is 18.9. Apple's is 12.9. Even non-tech giants Johnson & Johnson and General Electric hang out at 17.4 and 15.3 respectfully. Sure, those companies have been public companies for much longer, and have even had significantly higher P/E ratios then they do now (especially Google and Apple).
So yes, Facebook's stock price will probably even rise tomorrow and perhaps into the next week as people trip over themselves just to get a piece of the action.
But the price will fall. It has to. Unless Facebook comes up with an amazing new revenue stream over the next several quarters. Once the P/E comes under 25 or so, it would be worth looking into owning.
That is, unless the company is one of so many other tech companies who were the hottest thing going and is no more - and is beginning to be passed by some new kid on the block.
Come tomorrow, take a pass on Facebook. Wait until their revenues come up, or the stock price falls then jump in. One or both of those will happen, and that, you can take to the bank.
Yes, there are going to be some very wealthy people tomorrow both on paper and in their pockets. Those that are wealthy on paper are those that have a lot of Facebook shares and those that have their pockets overflowing with money are those that sell some or all of their shares tomorrow.
Here is the problem. Facebook pulled in only about $1 billion in revenue last year. That is no number to sneeze at, but with their IPO price of $38 per share, that values the company at about $104 billion dollars. Is their P/E ratio really worth being at 104?
Google's P/E ratio is 18.9. Apple's is 12.9. Even non-tech giants Johnson & Johnson and General Electric hang out at 17.4 and 15.3 respectfully. Sure, those companies have been public companies for much longer, and have even had significantly higher P/E ratios then they do now (especially Google and Apple).
So yes, Facebook's stock price will probably even rise tomorrow and perhaps into the next week as people trip over themselves just to get a piece of the action.
But the price will fall. It has to. Unless Facebook comes up with an amazing new revenue stream over the next several quarters. Once the P/E comes under 25 or so, it would be worth looking into owning.
That is, unless the company is one of so many other tech companies who were the hottest thing going and is no more - and is beginning to be passed by some new kid on the block.
Come tomorrow, take a pass on Facebook. Wait until their revenues come up, or the stock price falls then jump in. One or both of those will happen, and that, you can take to the bank.
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