Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Monday, December 3, 2012

Corporations can't horde all of the cash forever

CNN is reporting that corporate earnings are at the highest share of GDP ever. Conversely, wages for workers are at the lowest share of GDP ever.

None of this is a surprise. Companies have been hoarding cash, slashing their workforce and being stingy with pay raises (maybe a few percent per year, instituting no pay raises or even cutting salaries) for years, frequently using the 'down economy' as an excuse.

Combine that with companies spending millions on lobbying to get billions in tax breaks and it's easy to see how they have ended up with so much positive profits on their balance sheets.

But I suspect that will be changing in the future. First, it's just not at an equilibrium. Shareholders will demand something to be done with all of that cash and profits. Return it to the shareholders in the form of dividends or increase investments.

Secondly, the federal government is in need of revenue. They will raise the corporate tax rates, cut loopholes or some combination of the two.

Plus, as the economy continues to improve, companies will have to increase their hiring as demand for their services or products increase. With an increased demand for employees, wages will rise.

So both of these situations will change. Earnings in relation to GDP will fall while wages will rise. Will it start in 2013? Most likely, but we most likely won't see a dramatic shift until there is a sustained hiring boom.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Cities are getting smart about getting scammed

The Economist has a commentary about how the Atlanta Falcons are looking for a taxpayer subsidy in the neighborhood of $300 million to build a new stadium.

Now, that $300 million won't pay for the entire stadium. Just 30 percent, as plans are to spend $1 billion to build the new stadium.

I don't begrudge NFL team owners for trying to get money from their local area for new stadiums or renovations of their current stadiums. It's never a bad idea in business to get someone else to pay you for something you want.

But local cities are starting to catch on. It used to be, that teams would threaten to relocate if they didn't get a new stadium paid in part by the local governments. But economists are also putting out reports about the lack of economic benefit that new stadiums bring to cities, considering the large amount of funds governments put into the stadiums.

That threat of relocation is still there, as teams such as St. Louis, San Diego and to a lesser extent, Jacksonville, are threatening to  move if they don't get their ways. But the problem, is that there are view viable markets for the team to move.

Los Angeles is really the only place a team could move to - with a new stadium. San Antonio has a dome that is waiting for a team, but it likely will need well over $100 million in renovations to make a new owner happy.

So where does that leave Atlanta? I don't think they go anywhere. I don't think they get a new stadium with any public money, especially with their stadium being just 20 years old. If Arthur Blank wants a new stadium, he is going to just have to scrounge around in his pockets for more money to cover the costs himself.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Where to go

I've spent the last several weeks assessing myself and what I want to do with myself going forward. I've attempted to network with anyone I can, in order to solicit help in that - and I've been able to find some answers.

Utilizing my experiences and expertise, I feel best suited to do something with business operations. I've had a knack of seeing what is going on in a company I have been involved with and finding better ways of doing things, while saving money at the same time. There have been times I've been successful - such as fixing the cafeteria system when I was on the school board or overhauling the operations of the store I was most recently at (to the most my boss would allow).

However, as basic as this sounds, I want to be able to do the job that I was hired to do! I don't mind being given direction, tasks or other things in order to accomplish my goals, but don't stand in my way. Don't ask for my input and then blatantly ignore what I have to say. Don't prohibit me from doing things that make a positive difference! You hired me to make the change! Stopping me from doing that only reflects negatively on yourself.

Along those lines, I also want to work for and with others that know what they are doing! I'm not saying that myself or anyone else has to be the smartest person in the room - but at least know what's going on. Know your strengths and weaknesses. I want to work with others that know when to step back and let others handle situations. Is that asking too much? Probably - but it's something to strive for.

That being said, where do I end up? Middle management for a company? Seems like a logical place, but I also want a path for advancement. Consulting appears to be a good path as well - but I need some contacts there.

I'm also willing to travel and work remotely. Living in Pensacola yields few opportunities locally (let me know if you know of any!), but we have good air service here and I have a great Internet connection, so there are no problems there.

I'm networking pretty much non-stop now, so feel free to contact me! Let me know not only if you are able to help me, but if I am able to help you! Spread the word and I look forward to hearing from you soon!

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Why you should not buy Facebook stock...yet.

Facebook officially goes public tomorrow, with an initial price of $38 per share. That price has largely been set due to initial demand and absolutely nothing to do with any form of rational thinking.

Yes, there are going to be some very wealthy people tomorrow both on paper and in their pockets. Those that are wealthy on paper are those that have a lot of Facebook shares and those that have their pockets overflowing with money are those that sell some or all of their shares tomorrow.

Here is the problem. Facebook pulled in only about $1 billion in revenue last year. That is no number to sneeze at, but with their IPO price of $38 per share, that values the company at about $104 billion dollars. Is their P/E ratio really worth being at 104?

Google's P/E ratio is 18.9. Apple's is 12.9. Even non-tech giants Johnson & Johnson and General Electric hang out at 17.4 and 15.3 respectfully. Sure, those companies have been public companies for much longer, and have even had significantly higher P/E ratios then they do now (especially Google and Apple).

So yes, Facebook's stock price will probably even rise tomorrow and perhaps into the next week as people trip over themselves just to get a piece of the action.

But the price will fall. It has to. Unless Facebook comes up with an amazing new revenue stream over the next several quarters. Once the P/E comes under 25 or so, it would be worth looking into owning.

That is, unless the company is one of so many other tech companies who were the hottest thing going and is no more - and is beginning to be passed by some new kid on the block.

Come tomorrow, take a pass on Facebook. Wait until their revenues come up, or the stock price falls then jump in. One or both of those will happen, and that, you can take to the bank.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Here is how to lose a large pool of potential candidates

In an effort to network and reach out to others, I participate in a few Twitter chats. I do this not only to learn about what other people are saying and thinking, but to also share a few nuggets of knowledge that I have.

I was in one last night and notice some excellent answers being given by someone who works in HR at a US based automaker. Following the chat, I exchanged a few tweets back and forth with her, and she provided a link to the career website for that company.

After not having the best experience at the last conglomerate that I worked for, I was not expecting to find much of anything that I may have liked. However, I encountered a major problem before I could even see what kinds of jobs they had to offer.

When I pulled up the webpage, I noticed that nothing was formatted correctly, poorly laid out and just a major mess. Since I use the Safari web browser, I occasionally encounter this problem. So, I tried Firefox, since that will fix all problems I come across with Safari.

Except I then had the exact same problem.

Since I was not sure quite what the problem was, I sent a tweet to my contact at this company, and explained the problem. Her response: "Hi Rob, currently our ATS for job openings works best with Internet Explorer right now."

Seriously? This immediately brought back my failed attempts to apply for another major company that handles prescription drug plans when I had similar issues with viewing and applying for jobs within their company.

But with web browser usage somewhere around 53 percent being Internet Explorer...these two companies are missing out on up to 47 percent of their talent pool by letting their jobs sites be only accessed by IE. I'm not sure who is making these decisions within the companies, but if I were CEO, and I discovered this, someone would have some explaining to do!

So if nothing else, make sure your job website can be accessed by multiple web browsers. If this was 1997, I might understand. However, being 2012, access by multiple browsers over multiple platforms is a requirement!

Monday, February 20, 2012

A fun new project

Over the next four to six weeks, I am going to be rolling out an analysis of major companies.

I plan to start with the Dow component companies, since most people who would read this would be familiar with most, if not all of those companies.

I will be using publicly available information, my own personal experiences with the company (when available) and my own business experience in developing an analysis of these companies.

Think of it as a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). There will be a lot of constructive criticism and praise where needed. No mudslinging either, unless it is absolutely warranted.

Enjoy!

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Panic in Greece...Ahhhhhh!

Worries about the Greece economy put pressures on stocks today.

Tell me how many times you have heard about that. Then tell me how many times that has actually made you worried.

For me, I don't even blink. I think that has been mentioned two or three times per week, every week, for the past 18 months or so. Yet the U.S. stock market is near its all time highs. Sure there are troubles economically in Greece, but there is no need to freak out.

Greece did not get into their economic troubles overnight. They will not get out of their trouble overnight. It will take time, perhaps longer than 'analysts' want, but eventually Greece will get their problems straightened out.

There is no need for the average person to follow every single thing that happens with the Greece economy. Sure, if you conduct business in Greece or have other financial interests, definitely stay in tune with what happens. Otherwise, keep a casual eye on what goes on there.

Business writers need to have something to write about. Every minor thing that could possibly happen in the long road to recovery will send someone into a panic. Trust me, there is no need for panic - everything will work out for the positive in the end.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Why I am writing what I am writing about

I was miserable.

I spent several years working for a giant corporation and I was nothing but a number. I did not like what I was doing and foolishly didn't think there was a good way out or to improve my situation.

So, that lead to a mistake. A big one. I bought what I thought was a good business, but it lead to me being bankrupt at the age of 28. And without a job.

As a result, I am going to try and find my way hopefully doing something I enjoy. This is a good start.

I plan on writing about several things. Politics, economics and globalization will be the main focus. I will also write about my experiences in the professional and political worlds that will give some credence to what I am saying.

Why am I qualified to write about these topics? I grew up in a middle class family outside of a 'Rust Belt' city. I ended up obtaining a Bachelors degree and M.B.A. from a Big 10 school. I've worked for a Dow component company. I had an internship for another through a small company. I've not only worked for a small company, I've owned my own small company. I ran for public office twice, and won twice.

Needless to say, I have done a lot and experienced a lot. I want to put that to good use. I will say things that go against the conventional wisdom and will probably be controversial at times. But there is no use in trying to hide my thoughts or censor myself for no good reason. Enjoy what you read. Hopefully you will learn something. I would love to hear your thoughts.